Electricity market and network modelling

The PowerStream model is a detailed simulation and pool price forecast model for Australia’s National Electricity Market (NEM). PowerStream is used to generate pool price forecasts, simulate asset performance and profitability, assess the effects of network congestion, evaluate and optimise bidding strategy, due diligence, and for scenario and policy analysis, and other bespoke analysis for clients. PowerStream was developed by Northstream Analytic after twenty years working on the Australian energy sector.

Unlike mass-produced, off-the-shelf and rigid models, PowerStream is continually updated in structure, functionality and data, to match the rapidly evolving NEM.

Key features of PowerStream include:

• Detailed treatment of existing and future generators down to the unit level, with databases continually updated for latest project developments and news.
• Run horizons out to 2050 and beyond at hourly, half-hourly or five-minute settlement resolution.
• Settlement and dispatch via a least cost constrained optimisation routine for each time period, with constraints for physical network and generator performance characteristics.
• Ten tranche bid/offer treatment based on NEM data, with iterative bidding across multiple market states including outages, low or high availability, and negative price status.
• Detailed generator outage and maintenance profiles.
• Detailed construction of output profiles for variable renewable energy (VRE) projects, using historical data from existing projects and location-specific weather data.
• Realistic treatment of interregional trade, network constraints, congestion, constraints and loss factors, in linkage with the NS-NETWORK detailed network model.
• Detailed treatment of new entrant generators and batteries, with a large database of potential new projects. New entrant battery bidding strategies are optimised against prevailing market conditions.
• Multiple load forecasts across weather, EV and new technology penetration such as hydrogen electrolysers, and policies, to create a distribution of possible future market outcomes.
• Rigorously back tested against the NEM over historical years 2015-2022. This detailed historical analysis and ground-testing has given us a deep understanding of the operation of the NEM and its assets, and a robust, realistic model based in the actual operation of the market and participants. Please contact us for more information on the Northstream NEM historical simulation project.
• Clients use PowerStream for scenario analysis, pool price forecasts, bidding strategy, generator profitability assessment, due diligence, market demand-supply analysis, policy impact analysis, competitor analysis and more. PowerStream analysis assists asset owners and developers, investors, lenders, policymakers and advocacy groups, prepare for future market outcomes.

To learn more about Northstream’s electricity market modelling capability, please contact us.

NS-NETWORK is Northstream’s detailed model of the NEM transmission network. Due to increasingly decentralised nature of the NEM, the network is now even more critical in bringing electricity to demand, from locations spread across the countryside and urban areas. New generators cannot simply expect to dispatch at full capacity without taking into account existing network constraints and those that might arise in future as the number and dispersion of future generators accelerate. Features of NS-NETWORK include:

• Detailed treatment of the NEM network, continually updated for network operators’ expansion and augmentation plans.
• Geospatial representation of generators and loads across the network
• Outputs include network-modified dispatch forecasts for generators including congestion, losses and anticipated curtailments.
• The geospatial data product including the network, nodes, generators, transformers and loads, allows competitors analysis and geospatial competitor threat/opportunity assessment.
• Helps asset owners and developers plan for future network changes and understand the impacts of competitors on the network.

To learn more about Northstream’s electricity market modelling capability, please contact us.